Centre of gravity shifting from metros to suburbs





Honey, they've shrunk the city. Recently released census data shows between 2001 and 2011, population in Mumbai, Kolkata and two inner districts of Delhi declined, while in Hyderabad and Chennai only a small increase took place. But surrounding areas of the cities showed phenomenal growth indicating a shifting centre of gravity in metropolises.

Declining populations in some metros is notable though unsurprising. These cities are unable to absorb migration due to high cost of living, explains R B Bhagat, head of migration and urban studies at Mumbai's International Institute for Population Sciences.

"These districts also have the lowest fertility -much lower than two children per woman. Slum relocation/squatter clearances may have contributed," he told TOI.

Mumbai city district, which extends from Colaba to Mahim and Sion, saw a population dip of about 8% in 2001-11.
The adjacent Mumbai Suburban district grew at a sedate 8% in the same period. But Thane grew at 36% and Raigarh district by 19%.

Two of Delhi's nine districts showed a fall in population in the same period -New Delhi and Central Delhi. But all other districts showed increases, with some like SouthWest up by 31%. Population of four adjacent districts -Gurgaon and Faridabad in Haryana and Ghaziabad and Noida in UP -have exploded. Gurgaon leads the pack with a jaw-dropping in crease of 73% in a decade, while Noida grew at about 50% and Ghaziabad at 41%.

Kolkata, too, has a similar story with the city district's population dipping by about 2% while population in the surrounding North and South 24Parganas, Hooghly and Howrah districts have all increased by 10 to nearly 20%. Chennai grew by about 7% but the adjacent Thiruvallur district grew by 35% and Kancheepuram by nearly 40%. Overall, 21 districts in the country have shown an absolute decline in population.

Six are in Nagaland, the only state in the country where population declined between 2001 and 2011. Lack of employment opportunities is the prime reason why people are moving out -from remote areas to urban centres, and then out of the state altogether. Other districts which show a similar trend are mountainous districts like La haul & Spiti in Himachal Pradesh, Almora and Garhwal in Uttarakhand, and the Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu. Three hilly districts abutting the Konkan coast — Chickmaglur in Karnataka and Sindhudurg and Ratnagiri in Maharashtra, too, show a population decline.

Hyderabad showed a tiny increase in population of about 3% in a decade. But the surrounding Ranga Reddy district's population spurted by a phenomenal 48%. Pune and Bangalore seem to be exceptions to this trend. Pune grew by over 30% and Bangalore by over 47% between 2001 and 2011, reflecting their new IT hub status perhaps.

The adjacent districts do not show an exceptional increase, because both these cities had enough space to absorb the growing population. But this may change in the coming years as saturation takes place. According to Bhagat, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts have been traditionally out-migration districts and people from there are moving to both Pune and Thane.